Mortgage Rate Trend Index
By Bankrate.com

Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts provide their insights.  Alert me when the RTI is updated

This week (Sept. 4 - Sept. 10) the experts say: Rates might rise.

Sept. 4 - Sept. 10 This week, a little over half of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35 to 45 days. Almost 30 percent think rates will fall, and the rest believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points). Panel: Up: 53% Down: 29% Unchanged: 18%   Graph the trend RTI archive

Experts' comments and Bankrate analysts Experts' comments Panel With banks in a wait-and-hold mode, 25 percent of Lehman on the block, feds needing to tighten rates and fluctuating oil prices, we will see slight changes until things settle down. I still say buy and lock. Steve Levitt, vice president of mortgage lending, Guaranteed Rate, Chicago unchanged Mortgage-backed securities are getting very close to their own 200-day moving average, which historically has acted as a very strong ceiling to prevent improvement when MBS (mortgage-backed securities) are just below it, as they are presently. Sue Woodard, loan consultant, CTX Mortgage, Minneapolis up Mortgage-backed bonds have enjoyed a nice ride up lately, causing rates to drop. Tough layers of resistance will cause MBS to plateau and eventually slide back down. Bias: Locking. Sean Rafferty, author of BayAreaMortgageReport.com, BayAreaMortgageReport.com, San Jose, Calif. up The 10-year Treasury closed tonight at 3.736 percent (matching its recent low). As the inflation component continues to fall and we are pummeled by bad economic news and tighter credit worldwide, rates will continue their downward trend through the end of the year. Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles down Key economic numbers this week will show the economy is coming to a grinding halt. Palm readers, crystal ball forecasters and tea leaf experts are all finding lower rates in our future. Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif. down Higher rates as stocks rally. Barry Habib, CEO, Mortgage Market Guide, Holmdel, N.J. up While rates came down slightly in recent days, the bond market has recently broken through a key ceiling, which now becomes a floor of support, and until there is significant negative economic news or reports of decreasing inflation, mortgage interest rates should remain about where they are in the near term. David Kuiper, mortgage planner, First Place Bank, Holland, Mich. unchanged A strengthening U.S. dollar leads mortgage rates lower. Dan Green, Mobium Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati down The short-term tech turned bearish (lower prices, higher yields), but the market opened Tuesday in a buying mood. There is some real risk of Treasury yield spiking based solely on technical analysis. Mortgage rates still remain only loosely correlated with Treasuries, being more concerned about liquidity, property values and the health of the GSEs. Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco unchanged Expect a 10 (basis point) to 15 basis point increase in rates over the course of the next 30 (days) to 45 days. Any forecast like this is fraught with issues, given the variables that go into consideration, but consider where rates have traded recently -- very stable, very predictable -- not very common in this business. Directional market indictor models during this time are helpful to at least gain insight into what is "expected" and can be used as a benchmark. Cameron Findlay, chief economist, LendingTree.com, Charlotte, N.C. up While I have been saying unchanged for several weeks, I believe that the economic news will continue to be weak, but as oil pricing has come down, inflation concerns will start to abate. This could bring more favorable pricing. Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla. down It's all about the technicals this week. Mortgage rates have lowered in recent days, but appear to have hit a hard ceiling. If they don't break through, expect a potentially rapid run up in rates. If oil continues to drop by any great measure, watch out as money flows away from bonds and into stocks, sending rates higher yet. Dan Dowling, senior mortgage adviser and president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla. up Bankrate's analysts Panel Mortgage rates may fall further if we see a worse-than-expected employment report, but expect a rebound within two weeks. Inflation is at troubling levels and the Fed is currently powerless against it. Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com up Technical factors point toward the possibility of higher rates. So does my sense that inflation and economic activity are running a bit faster than most people suspect. Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com up

About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate.com surveys experts in the banking and mortgage fields to see if they believe certificate of deposit and mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. For the deposit index, the panel comprises banks, thrifts and credit unions that directly offer FDIC-insured certificates of deposit to the end consumer. For the mortgage index, the panel comprises mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's CD Rate Trend Index will be released monthly. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.